DOI: https://doi.org/10.30838/J.BPSACEA.2312.170118.52.40

Calculation models of reliability of petroleum reservoirs

S. N. Semenets, S. S. Nasonova, Yu. E. Vlasenko, L. Yu. Krivenkova

Abstract


Raising of problem. From the point of view of reliability most building constructions can be examined after a decouplig as a system with logically successive connection of elements. For the normal functioning of such system all its elements must be capable of working. The refuse of even one element results in the refuse of all system. In case of independence of refuses of separate elements probability of faultless work of the system is easily determined by well-known rule of increase of probabilities. If the refuses of elements of the examined system are statistically dependent, then it is adequate to represent dependence of reliability of all system indexes on probabilistic descriptions of its elements considerably more difficult. The well-known in the theory of chances going near the decision of this task is based on the synthesis of functions (integral or closenesses) of joint probability of works completely of separate elements of the system distribution. However for the decision of practical tasks such approach is extremely uncomfortable and not used actually. In this article the questions of design of reliability of steel reservoirs indexes are examined for oil products on the basis of hypothesis of the "weakest link". Purpose of the article - to show legitimacy of application of hypothesis of the "weakest link" at development of models of estimation of reliability of petroleum reservoirs being in exploitation. Conclusions. The gotten results confirm legitimacy of application of hypothesis of the "weakest link" at the design of reliability of steel reservoirs indexes for standing oil product storing. Offer models allow to get the complex probabilistic estimation of the technical state of reservoirs. The parameters of these models can be corrected from data of model inspections, that promotes exactness of estimation in every special case. In addition, these models can be used as prognosis models on the stage of planning of reservoirs and as case frames by reliability in the period of exploitation of these building. The models considered in the total can serve as an effective enough mathematical instrument at research of problems of reliability and longevity of petroleum reservoirs.


Keywords


petroleum reservoirs; reliability; damaged; index of material well-being; "weakest link"

References


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