The ability of schedulers to predict the occurrence of failures in the construction process is very relevant in modern conditions. Classification of failures and the reasons for their occurrence includes such factors as technical, technological, organizational, managerial. The complication of building production systems leads to an increase in the number of consistently connected elements (brigades, mechanisms, vehicles, suppliers, etc.), which, according to the basic law of reliability theory, reduces the reliability of the entire system in proportion to the number of elements in geometric progression. According to this law, even with a small number of elements (100) and high reliability of each, the construction system as a whole should have little reliability and deny almost in 50% of cases. Therefore, practice shows that the actual reliability of building systems is higher with a significant number of system elements and small reliability of each.If taking into account the probabilistic nature of most destabilizing factors, it is quite difficult to establish analytical dependencies that reflect the nature and extent of their impact on the final performance indicators.This means the need for their aggregate accounting by using probabilistic estimates of these indicators.With the development and complication of all types of technology, the problem of reliability becomes global. As is well known, the basic notion of reliability theory is the notion of failure, that is, a complete or partial failure of the system (loss of main quality). At the same time, it is often not important to differentiate economically and technically from such, certainly different, failures, such as the deviation of the system parameters from the design values, and failures of the system that are themselves eliminated ("failures"), the complete failure of the system. All refusals have a random character, as they are caused by the influence of temporary factors. Therefore, the reliability of the system is determined by the probability of failure of the project's guaranteed period of uninterrupted operation.For buildingsystems manufacture characteristic non-complete failures, and partial (crashes), which are self-moving in the process of continuous functioning of the system. At the same time, the parameters of the system substantially deviate from the normative, but we can not determine the magnitude of these deviations yet. And the methods of mathematical reliability theory are not suitable for this.It is important to know the power of the influence of each of the factors in order to respond in a timely manner to the effect of each factor. This is also needed to anticipate the possible negative effects of the (occurrence) of these factors on the construction and to timely eliminate them. So, when a traditional analysis of possible organizational and technological solutions is added to reliability, it simplifies the process of choosing a solution option, since the reliability of each indicator can determine its priority in making a decision.
parametric failure; instantaneous failure; risk factor; processability; organizational and technological reliability; scheduling
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